The Nevada Independent
Political newcomer Sam Brown has made Nevada’s U.S. Senate Republican primary a two-person race, but former Attorney General Adam Laxalt remains the odds-on favorite to win the June 14 contest, according to a new Nevada Independent/OH Predictive Insights poll.
The poll of 500 likely GOP primary voters, conducted between May 10th and May 12th, showed Laxalt winning 45 percent of voters with Brown taking 30 percent. The poll had a 4.4 percent margin of error.
“I think Laxalt is in a good position, but not in a safe position right now,” Mike Noble, chief of research and managing partner of OH Predictive Insights, said in an interview.
Noble added that Brown has surprised many by becoming Laxalt’s most competitive opponent, but the race still appears to be Laxalt’s to lose. Having won a statewide election to become attorney general in 2014 gave Laxalt a significant advantage, along with endorsements from top party officials including former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. He is also the grandson of the highly influential former Nevada Sen. Paul Laxalt.
Still, the new numbers show a shrinking lead for Laxalt as compared to previous polls, and also mark the first time that Laxalt — for years one of the most prominent Republicans in Nevada following his failed 2018 bid for governor and his role in Donald Trump’s re-election campaign — has dipped below 50 percent support in early primary polls.
A May 4 survey from 8 News Now, The Hill and Emerson College showed Laxalt leading Brown 50.1 percent to 27.1 percent among likely voters. Another earlier poll of likely voters, conducted by the conservative PAC Club for Growth (which endorsed Laxalt) and WPA Intelligence in March, showed Laxalt with 38 point lead (57 percent to Brown’s 19 percent).
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